I was put to task last week while speaking at the Middle East Institute in Singapore. “But how can Singapore benefit from strengthening relations between China and the Middle East?” asked an official from the Singapore Economic Development Board. It’s a fair question.
The problem is that just two percent of Singapore’s exports are destined for the Middle East, and only a small share of these are produced in China. So, trade isn’t the answer.
However, I’ve since given the issue more thought, and after visiting Beijing, Shanghai, Abu Dhabi and, of course, Hong Kong, in the past month, I’m convinced that Singapore will benefit not from trade, but rather in its ability to reach across national borders.
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A lot has been written on Dubai in the past few months. Some are fans. Others are critics. But few offer an idea of what the city might look like in a decade from now.
I was in Singapore last week and was struck by the amount of construction taking place. The number of cranes on the skyline reminded me of Dubai. Now, Singapore has its problems. Its economy is contracting. Its construction sector is suffering. But this isn’t the first time the city took a hit. It was also shaken by the Asia crisis in 1997, and its experience then offers a way to think about Dubai’s future today.
Here’s the most important lesson. It’s the construction sector that will take the biggest hit. In 1997, Singapore experienced a Dubai-like boom in its property market. The resulting crash was spectacular and the construction sector has only just recovered. In fact, it was only last year that the country started spending as much money building residential apartments and shopping malls as it did during the mid-1990s.
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