It is popular to talk about a rebalancing of power. Some of the most cited examples include China’s growing share of the global economy, or the Middle East’s bail-out of American banks.
However, there are numerous, less cited examples, including the Somali pirates that have given China’s navy an excuse to return to the Gulf for the first time in centuries, and the Turkish entrepreneurs who are increasingly looking to the Middle East to sell goods and build factories, whereas they once looked exclusively to Europe. These are as much part of global rebalancing.
But the topic is controversial. It tends to produce emotional responses and much flag waving. So I’m adding a few clarifications to avoid any misunderstanding.
I am talking about the rise the East, not the fall of the West. The United States, in particular, has some special qualities that will ensure it remains a major global power. For example, it continues to receive some of the world’s smartest immigrants, even if it is less welcoming than before. It also has more food and water than it can consume, a major advantage if global warming worsens.
The rise of the Silk Road will also not be a one-way trajectory. China, for instance, must rebalance towards domestic demand. India must find a way to build more roads, airports, and power plants. Saudi Arabia must reduce its reliance on oil exports. All three countries have survived the economic crisis. But none are guaranteed to succeed unless they push ahead with economic reform.
The region also includes some of the world’s fastest growing economies as well as some the most troubled countries. Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, and Yemen in the Middle East. North Korea in East Asia. That’s what makes the region’s linkages so important. An attack on Saudi Arabia’s refineries, for instance, would have both economic and political implications for China as oil prices soar.

