China’s naval base proposal and Somali pirates

Might Somali pirates be the initial trigger for a larger Chinese military presence in the Middle East? Yi Zhuo, a senior researcher at the Naval Equipment Research Centre, has raised the idea that China establishes naval bases in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean in order to supply the country’s recent naval activities in the region. The suggestion has attracted attention in the international media, including this article in The National, a UAE newspaper. (The Chinese-language media have in turn been reporting The National’s reporting of Yi Zhuo’s comments, and so on…).

Is the proposal for real? The idea is certainly being bounced around by China’s mainstream media. Take Phoenix Television, one of country’s more popular and outspoken news channels. (It’s based in Hong Kong, but is effectively a mainland channel). By chance, I was watching “Current Debate”, a lunch-time current affairs program, last week. The topic was a discussion on whether the Chinese Navy should be permitted to open-fire on pirates in the Gulf of Aden. I thought the academics participating  were taking the idea seriously, while a quick internet poll showed 90% of viewers as saying “yes”.

Much of the analysis will focus on China’s oil imports from the region. I don’t disagree. But it’s only half the story. Don’t forget that Europe is now China’s largest export market, accounting for nearly one in four goods shipped abroad. (Europe marginally overtook the United States last year as the bigger export market). Importantly, a large share of that trade travels on container ships through the Suez Canal. Now, I read that container ships are not easy targets for pirates. But there’s no guarantee, and diverting the ships around the Cape of Good Hope only comes at a greater cost.

So it’s not hard to see why China might find the idea of a naval base compelling.

The geo-political implications would be significant. A naval base would be a small step towards establishing a more visible military presence in the region. Sure, it’s a long, long, way from challenging the military dominance of the United States. But it’s nonetheless an important first step. There’s a lot of talk about China using Pakistan’s deep-water port Gwadar, near the Iranian border. But no real hard evidence. More interesting then, are China’s activities in Sri Lanka for which the evidence is more compelling and is neatly summed up by this article from the Jamestown Foundation. Is this a sign of what may be to follow?

It might just be that the Somali pirates, unintentionally, will be the catalyst for a gradual rebalancing of the region’s military power.