Libya had some harsh words for China at last month’s China-Africa Cooperation. The Foreign Minister, Musa Kasa, was quoted by Al Sharq Al Awsat, an Arabic-language newspaper, as saying that “China’s presence in Africa is neo-colonialism and aims to rule over the continent”.
It isn’t a surprise. I have long argued that China’s foreign policy faces serious challenges.
How so? China’s policy of non-intervention initially made the country many friends. However, a growing number of observers, such as Libya’s Foreign Minister, are arguing that China is in fact intervening, only in economic issues, rather than political.
“True cooperation must include all fields of politics and economics. It must not be reduced to constructing roads or building roads”, Musa Kasa pointedly said.
There were already signs of a shift in Libya’s thinking. Earlier this year it rejected a $417 million bid by China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) for Verenex, a Canadian oil-exploration company with Libyan oil leases. Libya’s national company has since purchased Verenex at 30% less than CNPC’s offer price.
Neither is Libya alone. Algeria, a neighbor, recently introduced tighter labor laws in order to stem a surge in foreign workers to the country. Over 32,000 are Chinese workers contracted to build roads, offices, and stadiums. There were even claims that Chinese companies controlled the construction industry.
Neither is it a surprise that North Africa is a flash point. The region is special for it mixes the large numbers of Chinese workers typically found in Africa with the political sensitivities of the Middle East. It’s an explosive combination.
There were hints of the risks earlier this year when Al Qaeda’s offshoot in North Africa, Islamic Maghreb, responded to the clashes in China’s western province of Xinjiang unrest by threatening Chinese workers in Algeria.
North Africa will remain a point of tension. But for the next flashpoint I would look to the Gulf. Tensions between Beijing, Riyadh, and Tehran are likely to grow.
So far, China has firmly maintained a non-interventionist stance on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, its position may be increasingly untenable. Why? Its commercial ties with Iran have helped softened the impact of sanctions, and there is good reason for Saudi Arabia to argue that this in intervention.
It will be hard for China to ignore Saudi Arabia. It is the country’s largest oil supplier, accounting for fifteen percent of China’s oil imports. Now, Saudi Arabia won’t turn off the tap. It needs the oil revenues. But it might start leaning on China to take a more interventionist approach in curbing Iran’s ambitions.
Now, this doesn’t all mean that sentiment towards China is about to flip suddenly. Far from it. The Middle East’s views on China are complex. Indeed, as Libya’s Foreign Minister was at pains to emphasize, he had a “positive view” on China and believed it contributed to a better “global equilibrium”.
However, the rest of the world might just be a little more demanding in the past.
I’m left wondering whether China has grown too big too fast. Most countries have had decades to accustom themselves to the rough and tumble of international politics. But China’s hunger for raw materials and need for export markets has forced it onto the global stage in a few short years.
If so, the Middle East might just be the inflexion point for the country’s foreign policy.
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